Forex Blog by Greg Secker

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up 26 points at 4,388 and the Dow closed up 32 points at 8,744. The FTSE, writes Greg, gained resistance on 4,400 and the 200ema, and the Dow gained resistance from 8,760 and the 200ema. In forex news the yen and the dollar fell against higher-yielding currencies as stocks gained before a U.S. report that economists said will show a gauge of the economic outlook improved, weakening demand for safer assets. The dollar index fell to a six week low.  In overnight news the AUD PPI was worse than expected at 0.8%. No other significant news for release today.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed up 15 points at 4,362 and the Dow closed up 94 at 8,711. In forex news, the yen and the dollar rose against most other major currencies on increased risk aversion, on news of the US lender, CIT group facing insolvency and the overnight Indonesia hotel bombings. In data releases today we have the CAD CPI figures out at noon and the USD building permits at 1.30pm

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed up 35 at 4,237 gaining resistance from the 50ema. The Dow closed up 28 points to closed just above the 50ema. In Forex news the yen traded near a one-week low against the euro before a U.S. report today that economists said will show industrial production shrank at a slower pace, adding to signs the worst of the recession is over. Rising equity markets will increase risk appetite for higher yielding currencies. In data releases due this morning watch out for the CHF retails sales y/y, the GBP claimant count change where a further increase is expected. Later on in the afternoon we have USD CPI rate and the FOMC meeting minutes.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed up 75 points at 4,202, closing above the key level of 4,200. A mixed day on Wall Street saw the Dow closed down 38 points and the S&P closed down just 4 points. Elsewhere in Europe the DAX closed up 146 and the CAC closed up 69 points indicating a lot of buying strength in Europe. It will be interesting to see what happens during the European open this morning. In Forex news, the Yen weakened yesterday as Asian stocks rose amid speculation Goldman Sachs will report stronger earnings today, encouraging investors to increase holdings of riskier assets. The Kiwi dollar strengthened after the Central Bank stated that the nation’s economy would recover more quickly then its trading partners. In data releases today to look out for, we have the GBP CPI figure at 9.30am. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is due at 10.00am then at 1.30pm we have the USD Retail Sales.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 32 at 4,127 and the Dow closed down 37 at 8,146 ending the week with heavy falls. The yen and the dollar again rose as Asian stocks declined and the relative safety of the yen and the dollar was sought.  Currencies will remain sensitive to the increased risks in equities.  The pound fell against the dollar after rumors that Lloyds may reveal further losses in its second half results in three weeks. In high news today we have the CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey at 3.30pm.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed up 19 points and formed the first green bar for 5 days. The Dow closed up 6 points and rallied into a previous support at 8,235. In forex news the dollar fell against the yen on speculation the G-8 leaders may question the dollars status as the world’s reserve currency. The Bank of England kept rates steady and did not announce any changes to the existing asset purchase program which pleased the market. Heavy news on the CAD is due at midday with the unemployment rate and then the trade balance.  USD trade balance is also due at 1.30pm.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed up 19 points and formed the first green bar for 5 days. The Dow closed up 6 points and rallied into a previous support at 8,235. In forex news the dollar fell against the yen on speculation the G-8 leaders may question the dollars status as the world’s reserve currency. The Bank of England kept rates steady and did not announce any changes to the existing asset purchase program which pleased the market. Heavy news on the CAD is due at midday with the unemployment rate and then the trade balance.  USD trade balance is also due at 1.30pm.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE closed down 46 points at 4,140 and the Dow closed up 11 points at 8,178. In Forex news, the recent rally in the dollar and the yen eased a little in late trading yesterday, but with little momentum as strong fears of a renewed global slowdown remain. In overnight news saw the AUD unemployment rate of 5.8%, which was slightly better than expected. All eyes will be on the GBP official rate statement at 12.00 pm with rates expected to remain steady at 0.5%. Further direction on a possible increase in the asset purchasing programme to increase the money supply is also possible. The CAD housing starts is then due at 1.15pm.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed down 8 points at 4,187. This forms the second close under the previous support level and 4,200. The Dow closed down 159 points at 8,163, which is its lowest level since the end of May. In Forex news, the yen has risen to a six week high against the dollar and the euro on further economic data adding to signs that the global recession is far from over. Japan’s currency typically strengthens during times of economic turmoil. With the G8 meeting underway in Italy, questions have again been raised on the possibility of a new world currency in lieu of the dollar, so expect further turbulence ahead.  Sterling declined for a fifth day against the dollar on speculation the BOE will increase its asset purchasing program at its MPC meeting tomorrow. In data releases to watch for today effecting GBP is the Halifax HPI m/m at 9.00am.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed down 41 points at 4,194 breaking down through support at 4,220 and 4,200. The Dow closed up 44 points at 8,424. In Forex news, yesterday saw the Dollar higher against most other currencies as once again risk aversion was on the increase. Early this morning the RBA kept the AUD cash rate steady at 3.00% in line with expectations. Other data releases to watch for today are the GBP Manufacturing Production m/m, and the Building Permits m/m together with the Ivey PMI for the CAD.