On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 19 points (0.45%) at 4,442 marking the end of another mixed week. The index is slowly snaking its way up towards 4,500 and the level of resistance at 4,520, and is gaining support from the 20ema. On Friday the Dow Jones rose a modest 28 points (0.3%), to 8,799 making this its highest close since 6th January. The recent 85-day Bull Run in US stock markets may have further to run but for now is in pause. The market is not responding to positive economic news in the same way that it was only a few months ago and the rally isn’t likely to restart until traders have a better sense of what will happen with interest rates (and inflation), the USD, corporate profits and particularly the banking sector. Today’s FX highlights are American TIC Long-Term Purchases at 2pm. TIC Long-Term Purchases show where the money is going – into the use or outside. The figure is expected to stand at 58.1 billion. Any surprise will shake the greenback across the board. Swiss PPI is predicted to rise by 0.1% after falling last time. The Swiss hope for some rise in prices. This is a critical week for the Swiss Franc. Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber, a senior member of the ECB, will speak today. Since no other European indicators are published today, his words could well move the EUR/USD.
Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed up 25 points (0.57%) at 4,461. The Dow Jones rose 31.90 (0.37%) to 8,770.92. The S&P 500 rose 5.73 (0.61%) to 944.88, while the Nasdaq rose 9.29 (0.50%) to 1,862.37. It’s a relatively quiet Friday this time. How will the greenback close the week? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, will talk about the European economy in two speeches in Bulgaria. EUR/USD moved both ways this week. How will it end the week? The BOE Executive Director Paul Fisher and BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale will both speak throughout the day. How will the Pound react? In the US, Import Prices are predicted to rise by 1.3%. The highly regarded University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to show a continuing improvement. The preliminary figure is predicted to rise to 69.5 points, a number not seen for a long time. There is no high news today.
The European markets managed to inch forward yesterday with the FTSE 100 closing up 32 points (0.73%) at 4,436. The DAX closed up 52 points (1.07%) at 5,051 and the CAC closing up 18 points (0.56%), with the Dow closing down 24 points (0.27%) at 8,739. In Forex news the Australian Consumer Confidence rises most in 22 Years – New Zealand’s Trading Terms Index Tumbles on Weak Export Demand – Yen Looks to Global Economic Recovery – USD Strength not likely to return this Week – EUR Rises on Weaker Greenback. In term of high news, starting at 2:30am, AUD unemployment rate release. Then USD retail sales at 13:30pm and finally NZD retail sales at 11:45pm. Keep an eye on this news if you are trading these currencies.
The FTSE 100 closed yesterday at 4,404, down under ½ a point. The Dow closed at 8,763, down 1.5 points. Forex news: After two slow days, the economic calendar is fully packed today: At 9:30am, GBP trade balance. At 1:30pm CAD and USD trade balance and finally at 10pm, NZD offical cash rate/ RBNZ press conference, rate statement and monetary policy statement. Caution applies today during these times for these currencies.
Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE 100 closed down 33 points (0.75%) at 4,405. The index is working its way up towards the upper resistance level around 4,500 and is gaining minor support from the 20ema. The Dow had a very indecisive day yesterday closing up just over 1 point. Forex news: After the continuing comeback of the dollar at the wake of the new week, the greenback stopped to rest. Also Tuesday doesn’t provide too many indicators, but two things will stand out: German Industrial Production and a speech by Timothy Geithner. No high news today.
The FTSE 100 closed up 51 points on Friday at 4,438. A high test bar was formed gaining resistance from the 200ema and 4,500. The index is still bound in a range, so is giving few opportunities. Early last week the Dow broke up through a resistance level at 8,600 and last week moved up to gain resistance from the 200ema on Friday. Also last week the S&P 500 also rallied up to the 200ema, but broke through it on 2 occasions. On Friday the index closed below the 200ema at 940. In Forex news Canadian Housing Starts and German Factory Orders are the highlights of this relatively quiet day. The markets will also digest the growing possibility of a global reserve currency that will replace the dollar. Outlook for the first day of the Forex trading week: Housing stats high news at 1:15pm for CAD.
The FTSE 100 closed broadly flat, up by 3.52 points, to 4,386.94 as a rise in financial stocks balanced a drop in the mining sector. After a strong start, confidence faded and the UK’s leading stock index was volatile in afternoon trading. Mining firm Lonmin fell by 5.76 per cent, while Rio Tinto dropped by 5.73 per cent and Fresnillo was down by 5.15 per cent on the blue-chip index.
But the index was supported by demand for insurance and property stocks, including Liberty International, up by 9.53 per cent, Hammerson, which rose by 8.21 per cent, and Aviva, up by 4.04 per cent. Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 74.96, or 0.9 percent, to 8,750.24. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 10.70, or 1.2 percent, to 942.46, and the Nasdaq composite rose 24.10, or 1.3 percent, to 1,850.02. The S&P and Nasdaq are at new highs for the year, and both are showing gains for 2009. The Dow is now down only 26 points for the year after having been in the red since early January. Stocks rose for the fifth time in six days on Thursday after analysts raised their ratings on banks and oil prices rose again, making energy firms look increasingly attractive. Investors were also encouraged after the government reported that the number of workers continuing to receive unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell for the first time in 20 weeks. The drop in unemployment rolls, as well as in first-time claims for jobless benefits, gave investors another signal that the economy is finding a more stable footing. The suggestion that the economy is halting its slide has driven a powerful rally that has lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 index 39.8 percent in three months. This wild week reaches the climax today with Non-Farm Payrolls – king of forex indicators. Also note the Canadian unemployment figures at 12pm and British PPI at 9:30am. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show a loss of 520,000 jobs in the US. The king of forex drawed attention throughout the week, and it’s published at 13:30 GMT. The market will shake. No Forex trading!
Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE closed up 88 points at 4,506. The Dow Jones industrial average and other major indexes rose more than 2 percent, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and Nasdaq composite rose to their highest levels this year. The Dow rose 221 points, or 2.6%, to 8,721% its highest close since early January. The index is now down only 55 points, or 0.6%, for the year. The S&P 500 index rose 23 points or 2.6%, to 942, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 54, or 3.1%, to 1,828. Forex News: The Australian interest rate decision promises a strong opening for the day. Later on, European Unemployment Rate and American Pending Home Sales will dominate the scene. Let’s see what’s up for today: High news at 2:30am and 5:30am for AUD. In the US, the main figure is Pending Home Sales at 3pm. After a nice rise of 3.2%, they are expected to be modest time, rising only by 0.4%.
Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE closed up 88 points at 4,506. The Dow Jones industrial average and other major indexes rose more than 2 percent, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and Nasdaq composite rose to their highest levels this year. The Dow rose 221 points, or 2.6%, to 8,721% its highest close since early January. The index is now down only 55 points, or 0.6%, for the year. The S&P 500 index rose 23 points or 2.6%, to 942, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 54, or 3.1%, to 1,828. Forex News: The Australian interest rate decision promises a strong opening for the day. Later on, European Unemployment Rate and American Pending Home Sales will dominate the scene. Let’s see what’s up for today: High news at 2:30am and 5:30am for AUD. In the US, the main figure is Pending Home Sales at 3pm. After a nice rise of 3.2%, they are expected to be modest time, rising only by 0.4%.
On Friday the FTSE closed up 30 points (0.7%) at 4,417 continuing to range sideways between support at 4,315 and resistance at 4,520. The Dow closed up 96 points (1.1%) at 8,500 and also continues to range sideways between support at 8,240 and resistance at 8,600. EUR/USD broke out significantly above 1.4050 to hit a high of 1.4166, before closing the week just below this new 2009 year-to-date high. Week after week since the lows in late April, price action has made higher highs and higher lows to form a steep, well-defined uptrend that has been in place for more than a month now. At 9:30am, high news for GBP manufacturing PMI and USD manufacturing PMI at 3pm. Watch out for volatility at these times.
