Forex Blog by Greg Secker

With a 38 point gain the Dow Jones closed at 11,268 yesterday after opening with early weakness and then ranging into a consolidation, without clear direction, throughout the session. Look to the 11,200 to 11,400 range for early breakouts to indicate direction today. Moves around 1.30 pm British Summer Time, as The US Trade Balance is announced and Employment reports are released, could set main direction for the day. The FTSE, writes Greg, closed down 49 points yesterday and with no major market news today this side of the Atlantic look to component news and pressure from the Dow for any decisive market direction. Oil is currently at $103.61 and Gold at $758,70. Great trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

The Dow Jones reversed the previous day’s gains to finish 280 points down at 11,230, having lost 345 points from the session highs around the 50 ema resistance level.  Today at noon British Summer Time the Mortgage Applications report is released and with such focus on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae over the past three days coupled with news out yesterday that pending home sales were down 3.2% for July means that this news could cause another day of large moves, particularly with the current negative emphasis on commodities. Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE finished down 30 points at 5,415 after the day’s high of 5,524. Today with the 50 ema continuing to afford strong resistance and our Trade Balance reports out today at 9.30 BST it is likely that most of today’s movement will continue beneath this level. Oil is at $103.75 and Gold is at $776.20. Great trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

The Dow Jones finished with a gain of 290 points at 11,510 and having tested the 50 ema after a massive burst of early strength. The index then proceeded to pull back and rally to the close. With little scheduled news out today, price action will look to further reaction to the past three day’s trading along with component pressure particularly amongst commodities. With the 50 ema presenting such a strong barrier, if decisive movement above this level can be held for more than a day then a break above the 11,800 could be seen. Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the FTSE gained 205 points to finish at 5,446. Disastrously for many the London Stock Exchange suspended trading for most of the session, citing connectivity as the technical reason for this loss of service. The raft of economic indicators in the UK were largely in line with expectation and today sees a smaller number of reports out at 9.30 am British Summer Time. These are unlikely to noticeably affect the FTSE with the main driving force being delivered by the massive pressure being exerted from across the Atlantic. Oil is trading at $105.05 and Gold is currently at $804.50. Have a great day’s trading and I will speak with you tomorrow. 

The Dow Jones opened by falling to within 35 points of the 11,000 level and then rallied over 200 points until its close, to finish with a 33 point gain at 11,221. This week a new channel could form between the 11,000 and 11,450 levels and should the price action move decisively outside this range then this could be taken as the signal for another big move. Little news at the front half of the week, other than the Government intervention with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, in America, to drive market reaction, leaves the back end to instigate the main bulk of movement this week and although the Bears had the overall sway last week a continuation of Friday’s bounce could be seen especially in the light of yesterday’s announcement. Friday’s FTSE closed down 121 points, another 2.3% lower, at 5,240 bringing the weekly loss to 7%, the biggest weekly drop since July 2002 and led mainly on Friday by the banking sector. With some lower level news out today at 9.30 am British Summer Time, this index will need that news to be good to reinforce any bounce from last weeks tumble. Gold is currently at $108.95 and Gold is at $818.70. Have a great day’s trading and I will see you tomorrow. 

The Dow Jones fell sharply yesterday from the open and closed down 345 points lower at 11,188. Today with the Non Farm Payroll announcement at 1.30 pm (British Summer Time) and with expectation of further weakening of the employment situation in America, adding further pressure to interest rates, coupled with end of the week position adjustment, the index could take a further battering today should the news be worse than expected. Look to the low in July of 10,800 as the testing level. The FTSE, writes Greg, yesterday meandered in a 50 point channel until early afternoon and then, with Dows lead, fell to end the day down 137 points at 5,362. With the potential of the NFP and other employment data strongly affecting both indices’ market direction, look for pressure pushing below 5,300 level and then to a fall to 5,000 should the 10,800 level be tested by the Dow, on the back of negative news. Oil is currently at $107.93 a barrel and Gold is at $800.60 for one troy ounce. Have a great day’s trading a fabulous weekend and I will speak with you on Monday.

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the Dow Jones finished up just 15 points at 11,532 having travelled sideways in a range just over 150 points. The index has a host of economic indicators reported today and these start at 1.15 pm, with the bulk at 1.30 pm, British Summer Time, so look for a break down from 11,400 should the news be negative and up through the 11,600 level and the 50 ema if they are better than expected. The FTSE closed the day down 121 points from the previous days close, or 2.15 percent, at 5,499 having fallen significantly at the open and then traded within a relatively narrow 60 point channel for the majority of the session. Today, look for response to the Bank of England interest rate decision out at noon (BST), the European rate decision under an hour later and the reaction to the Dow’s response to its own raft of reports. Oil is currently at $109.33 and Gold is at $805.00. Have a great trading day and I will speak with you tomorrow. 

The Dow Jones closed a mere 26 points down on the previous day’s close belying the massive high test effort covering 320 points from high to low during the day. Today look for further volatility with the continued uncertainty caused by the hurricane season although the gulf rigs seem to have been spared the worst by Gustav leading to tumbling oil prices yesterday. With price action opening and closing below the 50 period moving average this could indicate the renewed prospect of that level becoming firm resistance in the near term. Back home and the FTSE closed up 17 points at 5620 reversing earlier loses in the wake of the lift given to banking and building stocks by the government housing market slump rescue plan announcement. Further midweek strength may be muted as the lack of decisive direction form Wall Street continues to hamper any short-term recovery from a lacklustre August. Gold is at $810.500 and oil is at $109.71. Good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

As the August doldrums ended, September has had a very muted start from the blocks with the American markets closed for Labour day but with the promise of heightened volatility due to Gustav and Hannah – no not new names for American mortgage bail out companies but the seventh and eighth efforts from the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The resulting havoc could well lead to seesawing oil prices with concerns over the storms’ paths, adding pressure to many of the stocks making up the Dow Jones. Watch for much indecision today without major market news but in spite of all this if the 11,700 level can be breached and held, then a decisive upward thrust, ultimately to the 200 ema, could be seen. The FTSE, writes Greg, squandered its day of trading within a very narrow channel and ended down 33 points at 5602. Today if Wall Street gets into bullish gear then the 5,800 mark could well be in sight, as a good upward surge in both indices would pre-empt negativity ahead of the Non Farm Payroll on Friday and the hurricanes render bleak the outlook prior to the weekend. Oil is trading at $111.22 and Gold is at $823.50. Good trading and speak with you tomorrow.

The Dow opened Friday with early weakness through the 11,650 level and proceeded to drop throughout the session. The index closed the day with a loss of 171 points and could be headed back toward the 11,400 level. The Dow has essentially been rejected at the 11,700 level for the second time in three weeks, which is not encouraging. If this level cannot be crossed, we could see another drop back toward the 11,400 level. Continue to watch for range-type movement between 11,300 and 11,700 until a breakout from this range is seen. The FTSE rose 35 points to 5,636 making an advance of 4.2 percent in August, but is still down 12.7 percent for the year to date. Oil is trading at $115.84 and Gold at $836.70