Forex Blog by Greg Secker

The Dow opened yesterday with early strength, but was immediately sold to below the 11,600 level. The index dropped back toward the 11,400 level, but eventually rallied strongly towards the Close, ending the day 186 point up. There are indications that if the breakout occurs at either the top of 11,700 of the low of 11,200 then the resulting move could be significantly more than the daily gains and losses of late. The NASDAQ and S&P are both showing distinct signs of a similar breakout which will be a catalyst to the Dow. Today with the USA GDP announcement, out at 1.30pm (British Summer Time) a good day for decisive moves. The FTSE, writes Greg, closed 101 point up also; at 5,420, so today early gains could be nullified by reversals caused if there is a negative response to the American news. Oil is $126.13 Gold $920.40. Have a good day Trading and speak to you tomorrow

Good morning on Monday the 28^th of July 2008, only a year ago the Dow was fighting with a support/resistance level of 13,700 and Oil was trading at $73.40 a barrel. Today The market will proceed from an end point of 11,370 after a very sideways day with a gain of only 21 points and still within the channel of recent weeks… with no major news today and the holiday season grinding up to full swing, another indecisive day of movement languishing in the aforementioned channel is likely, but some early selling proving the continued weakness, may kick the day off heading down. The FTSE, writes Greg, closed just 10 points down at 5,352 at the end of the week and again with no major news unless decisive movement occurs early in the day this index is likely to meander towards a slightly higher close. Oil is $123.900 a barrel and Gold is $939.100 for 100g

Further to warning indications highlighted in previous editions The Dow opened the day with early weakness, the result being heavy selling that lasted throughout the day ending in a loss of 283 points. The possibility of the Dow testing below a 11,200 with more weakness potential is now looking likely. The NASDAQ and the S&P have both weakened further. Today with US news at 1.30 and 3 pm (British Summer Time) should these economic reports be worse than expected and be interpreted as indicators of further weakness to come, coupled with end of the week profit taking, could mean further substantial falls towards the close. The FTSE, writes Greg, 100 index closed down 87 points at 5,362 having reached a low of 5,245. Today with all the indicators from the US, a down day is on the cards and the movement around our major news at 9.30 (BST) is expected to be muted as the likelihood for surprises on the figures is very low against those forecast. Gold is at $929.600 and Oil is at $126.230 Have a great weekend and see you Monday 

Proving the underlying continued weakness of the American markets the Dow Jones flirted with an upward movement above the 11,500 level but then the index fell back towards 11,400 ending the day with a loss of 29 points. Today opening weakness is indicated followed by more indecisive movement. Watch Upper and lower levels around the recent formed channel points for breakouts but with little scheduled news to move the market as a whole, another oscillating day is likely. The FTSE, writes Greg, closed 27 points up at 5404 down from the high of 5445 and a low of 5334. Today this index threatens more of the same undecided direction, with weakness at the core. Oil is trading at $130.53o per barrel and Gold is at $968.100 for 100g. 

Closing with a 50 point gain on Friday, the Dow traded in a progressively sideways movement whilst testing the 11,500 level. For major direction indication this is the key level to monitor at this time. The beginning of the week will see further oscillation unless firm direction can be established; indications are that this is unlikely with continued weakness throughout the markets. The FTSE, writes Greg, closed up 90 points on Friday at 5,376 and with three days in the reverse direction of the downward trend, the cautionary notes above can be applied here also. With resistance at around the 5,500 level, should the Dow bounce back at 11,500 then the down trend resumption would be in play for both. Oil is at $130.640 and gold at $963.700 

A massive 276 point gain yesterday, allows me to report a positive movement from the Dow Jones and has meant that the continuation of the down trend has been reversed – for now; however that down trend has been strong and significant and caution must be exercised in believing that this is a sustained upturn. The Dow is still vulnerable and could still resume the trend falling through the lower level breakout suggested in previous updates. However with such a move yesterday, the upper breakout is also a possibility, but less so, without strong factors to support that continuation. Today with Housing Starts being announced at 1.30pm (British Summer Time) along with the potential for early profit taking from yesterday’s gains a less definite directional move is expected, particularly as the NASDAQ and S&P still display overall weakness. The FTSE, writes Greg, closed down 21 points against the close of the day before at 5150 in a day that once more followed the Dow movement during the sessions’ overlap. With no scheduled GB news today and only minor news tomorrow this index will spend the end of the week at the mercy of speculation rather than coherent strategic profit taking, therefore a choppy end to the week is indicated with further low tests should the Dow resume the aforementioned downward trend. Gold is at $964.600 and Oil is at $134.050 

Yesterday – notes Greg Secker – the Dow Jones opened up more than 100 points then immediately began to fall. Trading in the afternoon around the 11,050 and closing the day at 11,051, overall the index ended down 45 points in a relatively muted session. Today with more potential fuel for the Bears in the guise of the PPI for June (Producer Price Index) and Retail Sales reports out at 1.30pm (British Summer Time) the threatened breakout at the lower reaches of the recently formed channel looks increasingly likely should the news be worse than expected. The NASDAQ and S&P continue in their current patterns and continue to fail to provide any solid support. The FTSE closed up 38 points at 5,300 in a less volatile day than Friday but still nodding towards further falls. Today with the Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index reports out at 9.30 (BST) if the news is worse than expected and with the potential of reflected reaction from the US further selling off to maintain current weakness is set to continue. Gold is trading is at $972.300 and Oil at $145.000 

 

Closing 128 points down belied the Dow’s volatility during the session seeing it map out over 600 points having opened the day down more than 150 points.  Support that was found at 11,000 saw a quick rally carrying the index into a positive level but that was reversed in the final hour of trading. This week with news breaks which lend themselves to the possibility of a further slide in confidence, the breakout from the 11,000 resistance level looks increasingly likely. The result may well then see a free fall in the next 1000 point section taking us back to the start of November 2005.  The NASDAQ and S&P continue in their affirmation of this weakness so another volatile week to come. The FTSE, writes Greg, fell 145 points to 5261 the low for the day and the Lowest close since October 2005. Since its peak in October 2007 this index has lost 20% and this solidly confirms that we are currently in a Bear Market. Just as with Dow, News breaks this side of the Atlantic are promising more of the same drain on positivity and could well drag this index into the 4000s sending us back to May 2005. Ensure that a watchful eye is cast towards these to ensure maximum potential is gained from these shorting opportunities should they occur. Gold is at $964.800 and Oil is trading at $144.570 

 

August 2006 was the last time we saw the Dow Jones industrial average reach this low and then it was passing through that point forging upward. So having opened slightly up on the previous day’s close the day ended over 80 points higher by the session end. The release of the Bank of England interest rate could not have been pinpointed on this index however a lethargic trail upward from the break of the news of 50 points, could have been capitalised on. Today movement could well be more distinct as US Trade Balance Figures are released today at 1.30pm (British Summer Time) and look for more divergent fluctuation as profit taking on weekly moves occurs by market makers towards the end of the session. The FTSE, writes Greg, was down 122 points at 5406 but the response move over Interest Rates was muted due to the level of certainty that “no change” would be the outcome. Today with the US news affecting this index too and the end of week movements a smaller than forecast trade gap from America could see a higher end to the week. Gold is currently trading at $944.300 and Oil at $142.22. Next week we have various GB Price Index reports to look forward to from both the UK and US and also Housing Starts in the US. Have a great day Trading and a great weekend!

With a slight opening rise on the close of the day before the Dow gave in to the weakness that has been the hallmark of recent trading. With only five closes beating the open in the last four weeks, the drop of 236 points by the finish of the session further fuelled speculation of a breakout possibility from the consolidation channel of recent weeks. The fall reversed the gains of the day before and indications are that a further fall at the open may find support at the bottom of the channel then find strength to retrace in the early part of the session. The NASDAQ and the S&P continue in their recent trends and their worsening, will fuel further weakness on the Dow.  At the Close the FTSE was up 89.1 at 5529.6 but after the drop of the Dow and other Eastern markets the open today is called down on yesterday’s Close. With Mervyn King, Governor of The Bank of England, expected to retain the interest rate at 5.00% level (12 noon, British Summer Time) for a fourth month in a row, the markets response is expected to be muted (notwithstanding the type of move and retracement we have seen recently at the break of news on a short time frame, with the market makers attempting to profit from others overreactions) Oil is currently $135.710 and gold $929.200.